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A coalition of genocide scholars and experts has issued a stark warning that current political, legal, and social trends in the United States may represent the early stages of a genocidal process targeting transgender, nonbinary, and intersex Americans, according to reporting by the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention.
The Lemkin Institute, a nonprofit focused on genocide prevention, republished the article by Walker Bragman from the Important Context newsletter, in which multiple authorities on genocide analysis state that the United States is facing escalating threats and harms against gender diverse communities.
Genocide Defined by Experts as Process, Not Only Mass Killing
Under international law, genocide is legally defined as acts “aimed at destroying, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.” Experts involved in the report argue that these legal categories may be too narrow for today’s forms of targeted violence and exclusion.
Dr. Henry Theriault, former president of the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS), warned, “I am concerned about genocide against trans people in the United States in the near future.” He noted that attacks increasingly target groups defined socially rather than by the Convention’s categories.
Genocide Watch founder Dr. Gregory Stanton said, “I think what they’re doing here is they’re trying to destroy a gender group.” He added, “I think that the objective here is literally, physically to destroy this group.”
Escalating Rhetoric and Policy Shifts
The report details how political rhetoric and public policy have shifted in ways that experts view as harmful. It points to prominent conservative calls to “eradicate transgenderism” at public events as examples of eliminationist language that can normalize prejudice and violence.
The article also cites administrative moves within the federal government to erode nondiscrimination protections and limit healthcare access for LGBTQIA+ people, including actions affecting gender-affirming care and research funding.
Broad Policy Environment Increasing Harm
Experts note that more than half of U.S. states now have restrictions on youth access to gender-affirming care. Others have enacted rules governing sports participation and bathroom use for transgender people.
Former IAGS leader Theriault said the political shift toward policies that marginalize gender diverse people, along with harsh rhetoric from leaders and media sources, is creating conditions that escalate risk .
Rising Violence and Vulnerability
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The report links these trends to measurable harm. It cites data showing a rise in anti-trans homicides and hate crimes, noting that 2021 was the worst year on record for transgender homicides. Civil society research and FBI data indicate increases in reported gender identity hate crimes from 2020 through 2024.
Public health studies also show that transgender people face elevated rates of suicide attempts and mental health strain, particularly in environments with hostile laws.
A 2024 study from The Trevor Project found that anti-trans legislation was associated with worsening mental-health outcomes among transgender and nonbinary youth.
Expert Warnings and Comparative Context
Dr. Elisa von Joeden-Forgey, founder and executive director of the Lemkin Institute, stated that the United States is now in the “early-to-mid stages of a genocidal process” against trans, nonbinary, and intersex people. She warned that using specific communities as targets can desensitize the public to broader violence.
Scholars also pointed to the vulnerability of the transgender population, estimated at around 1 percent of the U.S. population, as historically comparable in size to minority groups targeted early in other genocidal processes, such as Jews in Germany in 1933.
What This Means for Americans
Experts quoted in the Walker Bragman’s article describe this warning as an early alert. The scholars are not claiming that mass killing has begun in the United States. Instead, they argue that a pattern of exclusion, violence, and dehumanization fits recognized early warning signals used in genocide risk assessment.
The warning is intended to inform policymakers, civil society, and the public so that preventative action can be taken. Historical evidence shows that genocidal processes often start with political polarization, discriminatory legislation, and entrenched hostile rhetoric before escalating into more extreme forms of violence.
As the debate continues, genocide scholars urge Americans to pay close attention to the political environment, to recognize early warning signs, and to support protections for vulnerable communities.
