In American politics, not every state gets the same level of attention. Some are considered safe territory—firmly blue or red, no surprises there. Others are battlegrounds, where every vote feels like it might tip the scale. These are the swing states.
And in 2025, after another nail-biter of a presidential race in 2024, the list of swing states has both familiar faces and a few that are inching closer to center stage.
Let’s break it down—where things stand now, how we got here, and what could shape the next big shift.
Key Highlights
- Swing states in 2025 include AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI – with NC gaining ground.
- Suburban growth and Latino voters are reshaping key battlegrounds.
- 2024 saw razor-thin margins in seven states, signaling continued volatility.
- Former swing states like FL and OH are now reliably red.
The Core Swing States in 2025
Even though 2025 isn’t a presidential election year, it gives us room to look at the data from 2024 with fresh eyes.
These are the states that came down to the wire and will likely hold outsized influence again in 2028, according to USA Facts.
1. Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +0.3%
- 2024 Margin: Trump
- Key Counties: Maricopa (suburban and shifting), Yuma (Republican stronghold)
Arizona flipped to Democrats in 2020 for the first time since 1996, only to swing back to Republicans in 2024.
The fight here centers around Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and nearly two-thirds of the state’s voters.
Republicans still dominate rural counties, but the state’s growing Latino population and younger suburban voters keep it in play.
2. Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +0.2%
- 2024 Margin: Trump (less than 3%)
- Key Areas: Atlanta suburbs (Democratic), North Georgia (Republican)
Georgia’s political identity has transformed over the last decade. A Democratic win in 2020 shocked many—it was the party’s first presidential victory here since Bill Clinton in 1992.
In 2024, Trump won again, but the race was tight. A booming and diversifying Atlanta metro keeps Georgia on everyone’s radar.
3. Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +2.8%
- 2024 Margin: Trump (under 3%)
- Urban-Rural Split: Detroit and Ann Arbor are reliably blue; the rest of the state leans red
Michigan’s story is one of whiplash. After decades of voting Democratic, it narrowly supported Trump in 2016, then flipped back to Biden in 2020.
Trump reclaimed it in 2024 by a small margin. Grand Rapids and other urban centers are growing bluer, while the rest of the state remains a Republican stronghold.
4. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +2.4%
- 2024 Margin: Trump
- Bellwether County: Clark County (Las Vegas area)
Nevada was reliably Democratic from 2008 to 2020. But by 2024, that margin had shrunk enough for Trump to take it, marking the first Republican win here since George W. Bush in 2004.
Latino voters and union members once formed a Democratic firewall, but Republicans made inroads, especially among working-class men.
5. Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +1.2%
- 2024 Margin: Trump (under 3%)
- Key Divide: Philadelphia suburbs vs. rural interior
Few states swing harder than Pennsylvania. It’s flipped three elections in a row—Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, then Trump again in 2024.
6. Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Biden +0.6%
- 2024 Margin: Trump (under 3%)
- Democratic Core: Dane County (Madison), Milwaukee
- Republican Base: Rest of the state
Wisconsin’s been on a razor’s edge for years. Trump won it by just 22,000 votes in 2016, Biden by only 20,000 in 2020, and then Trump squeaked by again in 2024. It’s a state where turnout—especially in Madison and Milwaukee—can shift everything.
7. North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)
- 2020 Margin: Trump +1.3%
- 2024 Margin: Trump
- Trending Blue: Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham
- Remaining Red: Everywhere else
While it hasn’t flipped yet, North Carolina is worth watching. It’s been close in the last two elections, and growth in the state’s urban and suburban areas is starting to show.
Latino and younger voters are playing a growing role, especially in areas like Wake and Mecklenburg counties.
How Swing States Have Shifted Over Time
To get a real sense of where we are, it helps to look back—way back in some cases.
1992 to 2024
Since the 1992 election, 20 states have flipped parties at least twice. That sounds like a lot, but the number of truly competitive states has gone down since the ‘90s.
Back in 1992, 22 states changed hands. Bill Clinton’s outsider campaign disrupted the status quo, and Ross Perot’s third-party run added even more chaos. Since then, elections have grown more predictable—with no more than 11 states flipping in any election since.
Fast-forward to 2024, and we’re down to just a handful of razor-close contests. In 2024, seven states had margins under 3%. In 2008, five did—but not the same ones. The swing state map keeps shifting.
Here’s a quick look at some of the key years:
| Election Year | Number of Swing States (Margins <3%) | Key States |
| 1992 | 22 | GA, FL, CO, MI, OH, MO, etc. |
| 2008 | 5 | FL, IN, MO, NC, MT |
| 2016 | 3 flipped states, all under 1% | MI, PA, WI |
| 2020 | 5 flipped states, most under 1% | AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI |
| 2024 | 7 tight races | AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI |
Why Some States Swing and Others Don’t
It’s never just one thing that makes a state competitive. The magic is in the mix – demographics, geography, culture, and policy all play a role.
Suburban Growth
Suburbs have taken center stage in swing state politics. Metro areas around Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Raleigh have added hundreds of thousands of voters over the last decade. Many of these voters lean Democratic, especially college-educated women and younger professionals.
In Georgia alone, the Atlanta suburbs grew by over 300,000 registered voters from 2012 to 2020. That trend has continued, though Republicans regained some ground in 2024.
Latino Voters
In Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, Latino voters make up a significant and growing share of the electorate. In 2024, Republicans made gains with Latino men, especially those working in trades and energy.
Democrats still held strong with Latina women and younger Latino voters, but the margins narrowed.
Urban-Rural Divide
In swing states, the same story plays out over and over again: cities vote blue, rural areas go red. The balance comes from suburbs, small cities, and turnout rates.
In Michigan, Detroit votes overwhelmingly Democratic, while most rural counties go Republican by double digits. The same pattern holds in Pennsylvania, where the Philadelphia suburbs can decide the outcome.
Key Issues in 2024
Abortion was front and center in many swing states. In Arizona and Nevada, ballot measures on abortion access helped drive Democratic turnout. Economic anxiety and inflation also played heavily into Republican messaging.
College-educated voters, especially women, were more likely to prioritize abortion rights and vote Democratic, while rural voters leaned into economic populism.
Swing States That Have Faded or Emerged
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Former Swing States That Have Settled
- Florida: Once the crown jewel of swing states, Florida has trended solidly Republican since 2016. Trump won by more than 3% in 2020 and again in 2024. Democratic hopes have faded, especially after losses in key local races.
- Ohio: Like Florida, Ohio voted for the winner in 9 of the last 10 elections but has leaned red since 2016. Trump’s margins were solid here, and Democrats have struggled to gain traction in statewide contests.
- Virginia: A former battleground, it’s trended blue in recent cycles, but Republican gains in 2024 signal that it might be more competitive in the near future.
States on the Rise
- North Carolina: Growing cities, changing demographics, and close margins have pulled North Carolina closer to true battleground status.
- Texas: Not quite a swing state yet, but it’s worth mentioning. Democrats have gained ground in urban centers like Houston and Austin, and Republicans’ margins in statewide races are slowly shrinking.
The Importance of Swing States in Picking Winners
Some states seem to have a knack for backing the winner:
- Nevada and Ohio: Picked the winning candidate in 9 of the last 10 elections.
- Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania: 8 of the last 10.
- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: All three picked the winner in the last five presidential contests.
That kind of consistency explains why campaigns pour time and money into them. Flip one or two of these states, and the entire Electoral College map can change.
Looking Ahead to 2028
Looking to the next presidential election, six states are clearly still in play:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
North Carolina isn’t far behind.
The wildcard? What voters care about next time. In 2024, it was inflation, abortion rights, and culture war battles over schools and gender. By 2028, it could be housing affordability, immigration, or something we haven’t seen coming yet.
Methodology
- We analyzed state-level data from the 2024 election, focusing on states with margins under 3% to identify current swing states.
- We compared historical election results going back to 1992 to track which states have shifted party control and how often.
- We reviewed reporting from sources like USA Facts and voter registration data to assess county-level trends and suburban growth.
- We grouped states based on recent voting behavior, breaking them into current swing states, emerging battlegrounds, and former swing states that have settled.
- We highlighted key voter demographics, like Latino voters, suburban women, and younger urban residents, using both turnout patterns and known party shifts.
- We focused on practical electoral consequences, such as Electoral College impact and campaign resource allocation, to show why these states matter.
Final Thoughts
Swing states aren’t just part of election night drama—they shape how campaigns are run, how candidates talk, and where policy gets tailored. In 2025, the list includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with North Carolina closing in.
What makes them swing? A combination of tight margins, rapid growth in diverse suburban areas, and policy issues that motivate voters on both sides.
Watch them closely. They’re not just battlegrounds—they’re barometers for where the country’s headed next.
